Bitcoin halving and market cycles: what the data says

Bitcoin has no central bank deciding how many coins get created. New ones come out with every block, roughly every ten minutes, as a reward for the miner who finds it. That reward, the block reward, is cut in half every 210,000 blocks: that is the halving. Nobody votes on it and nobody can bring it forward, because it has been written into the code since the genesis block, mined on January 3, 2009. If you are starting from zero, begin with what Bitcoin is and how it works.

The reward started at 50 BTC per block and, as of October 2026, it stands at 3.125 BTC. Keep dividing by two and issuance trends toward zero, with the total landing a hair under 21 million bitcoins. The last fractions will be mined around the year 2140, according to estimates on the Bitcoin technical wiki.

The original paper spells it out: since there is no central authority to issue coins, the subsidy is how they get into circulation, and Satoshi Nakamoto compares it to gold miners spending resources to add gold to circulation. He also makes it clear that it was meant to be temporary:

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“Once a predetermined number of coins have entered circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation free.”

In practical terms, each halving cuts the flow of new bitcoins in half. If demand holds steady while new supply drops, price should feel it. That “if” is the whole debate in this guide.

In “Qué es el halving de Bitcoin: el reloj que mueve TODO el mercado” (what the Bitcoin halving is: the clock that moves the whole market), I walk you through it with charts: programmed scarcity, its effect on price, and where we stood in the cycle in July 2026.

Qué es el halving de Bitcoin: el reloj que mueve TODO el mercado7:16

Dates shift a little depending on the time zone, because a halving doesn't happen on a set day: it happens when a specific block gets mined. The 2024 halving arrived with block 840,000 at 00:09 UTC on April 20. That was 2:09 a.m. in Spain, while in New York it was still the evening of April 19.

In March 2026, the theoretical number of bitcoins issued passed 20 million, around block 940,000: less than a million are left to mine, and that will take more than a century. Since the 2024 halving, annual issuance runs at about 164,000 BTC, roughly 0.8% of the coins that existed at the time.

And look at the last column: each halving matters less than the one before, in bitcoins and, above all, relative to the size of the market.

The cycle theory goes roughly like this: after each halving comes a strong rally that tops out 12 to 18 months later; then a long year of declines; then a boring phase where the price builds a bottom, and around we go again. With the data in hand, the timing has held up surprisingly well. What no longer looks the same is the size of the moves.

Read the last column from top to bottom: from ×95 to ×1.9. That makes sense. Moving a small asset is one thing; moving one that was worth around $2.5 trillion in October 2025 is another.

The fourth column tells a different story: between 367 and 548 days. The 2025 high came 534 days after the halving, inside the range of the two previous cycles. Anyone who followed the calendar did fine; anyone waiting for another ×8 or ×30 was left waiting.

The other side of the cycle is the one almost nobody shows on social media. Every peak has been followed by a long decline, and we are not talking about a 20% scare:

Each crash had its trigger. In February 2014, Mt. Gox collapsed; at the start of that year it handled more than 70% of all bitcoin transactions. In 2018, the ICO euphoria of the year before deflated. In 2022, everything hit at once: the Federal Reserve started raising rates in March, Terra (LUNA) imploded in May, and FTX filed for bankruptcy on November 11, ten days before the low.

In the current cycle, the blow landed four days after the peak. On October 10, 2025, a threatened 100% tariff on China set off the liquidation of more than $19 billion in leveraged positions in roughly a day, according to the consulting firm FTI Consulting. There was no fraud or bankruptcy behind it: it was leverage. By February 2026 the price was hovering around $60,000, and in late June and on July 1 it set slightly lower lows.

To bring some order to the chaos, people often use a classic four-phase framework attributed to Richard Wyckoff, a pioneer of technical analysis in the early 20th century. It wasn't built for crypto, but in bitcoin you can see it with almost exaggerated clarity, because everything happens faster and harder.

Accumulation

After the big crash. Price moves sideways for months and almost nobody brings up crypto at holiday dinners. The buyers are the people with patience and cash on hand. It is the hardest phase to get into, because everything around you says “this thing is dead.”

Markup

Price breaks out of the range and starts printing higher highs. Early on, it climbs on skepticism; by the end, on euphoria. Out come the 10x predictions, the friends asking you what to buy, and the altcoins jumping 30% in a day.

Distribution

Right at the top. Price stalls or carves out similar peaks while those who bought low keep selling to latecomers. The news is still good, and that is exactly why selling feels so hard.

Markdown

Support levels give way one after another and every bounce gets sold. Leverage is liquidated in cascades, and the mood goes from denial to panic, and from panic to indifference. That indifference is usually the doorway to the next accumulation.

The problem is that the phases only look obvious in hindsight. In real time, distribution looks like a pause before the next leg up, and accumulation looks like a trap before the next leg down. That's why my analyses lay out bullish and bearish scenarios, each with the level that would invalidate it, instead of certainties.

Getting the phase wrong is expensive. A February 2023 bulletin from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) looked at crypto app use between August 2015 and December 2022 and concluded that “a majority of crypto app users in nearly all economies made losses on their bitcoin holdings”, over a period in which the price multiplied. When people got in mattered more than what they bought.

That psychology is the subject of “Aquí es donde se crean los millonarios” (this is where millionaires are made): why most people buy when everything is going up, sell in fear when everything is falling, and how to do the opposite without losing your mind.

Aquí es donde se crean los millonarios6:14

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is bitcoin's share of the total crypto market capitalization. When it rises, money is concentrating in bitcoin; when it falls, money is spreading out into altcoins. According to CoinGecko data, it hit its all-time low of 34.7% on January 13, 2018, and in March 2025 it climbed back above 60% for the first time in four years. If any term trips you up, look it up in the glossary.

Altseason is the stretch when most altcoins outperform bitcoin. One of the most cited gauges, Blockchaincenter's Altcoin Season Index, calls it when 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies, excluding stablecoins, have done better than bitcoin over the last 90 days. At 25 or below, it calls it “Bitcoin Season.”

The classic narrative says that at the end of each cycle, money rotates from bitcoin to Ethereum and from there into smaller and smaller altcoins. Sometimes it does. What the data shows beyond any argument is the bill that comes afterward: Ethereum, the second largest, fell harder than bitcoin in the last two bear markets, 82% versus 78% in 2021–2022 and 70% versus 54% from their 2025 highs to June 2026. Terra (LUNA) made it into the top ten before going practically to zero in May 2022.

On my channel I tracked altseason closely. In “¡La Altseason está por comenzar!” (altseason is about to start, July 21, 2025) I analyzed phase 2 of the altcoin cycle, with bitcoin dominance falling and Ethereum heading toward $6,000 as a scenario; it stopped at $4,955, its August 24 high. In “¿Bitcoin o Altcoins? El gráfico que lo cambia TODO” (bitcoin or altcoins, January 11, 2026) I cross-checked Total3, dominance and the Russell 2000 to see whether the season had real support. Watched today, they're useful for seeing how the market gets read in the heat of the moment, and how fast the story changes.

Altseason and dominance in my videos

21:08

¡La Altseason está por comenzar! Prepárate antes de que el mercado explote | BTC | ETH | LINK | ONDO

Jul 21, 2025 · 33 views

7:44

¿Bitcoin o Altcoins? El gráfico que lo cambia TODO

Jan 11, 2026 · 17 views

And if you're wondering which altcoin might have room to run in the next cycle, in “La mejor criptomoneda para el próximo ciclo” (the best crypto for the next cycle) I break down the Standard Chartered report that talks about one specific crypto multiplying 25 times by 2030: what it says, what it's based on and what the risks are. And before you buy any of them, stop by the cryptocurrencies section, where I explain what each coin is and what can go wrong.

La mejor criptomoneda para el próximo ciclo (un banco predice un x25)7:35

Alternative.me's Crypto Fear & Greed Index sums up the market's mood in a single number from 0 to 100: zero is extreme fear, a hundred is extreme greed. According to its methodology, it combines bitcoin's volatility and drawdowns (25%), momentum and volume (25%), social media (15%), dominance (10%) and Google Trends (10%). Surveys, which carried another 15%, are on pause.

Its creators frame it like this: “Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.” And when investors get too greedy, they add, the market is due for a correction. Using it as a trigger is another matter, and its own history proves it:

• On June 18, 2022, it read 6, extreme fear. Bitcoin dropped that day to around $17,600, but the cycle low didn't come until November, near $15,500.
• In February 2026 it hit 5 twice, on the 12th and the 23rd, matching its all-time low from August 2019. Even so, the price set a lower low on July 1.
• It didn't scream at the tops either: on the day of the November 2021 high it stood at 75, and on October 6, 2025, at 71. Greed, yes; extreme, no.

Use it as a mirror, not a traffic light. If it reads extreme fear and every bone in your body wants to sell everything, at least you know you feel what almost everyone else feels, and feeling what everyone feels is rarely an edge.

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“We have no idea—and never have had—whether the market is going to go up, down, or sideways in the near- or intermediate term future. [...] Our goal is more modest: we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

Buffett opens by admitting he can't predict the market, and that part almost never gets quoted. Going against the crowd isn't a shortcut either. On November 15, 2025, with the index at 10, I published “TODOS HABLAN DE BEAR MARKET… ¿Pero y si pasa LO CONTRARIO?” (everyone is talking bear market, but what if the opposite happens?), a contrarian look at the signals that would invalidate the bearish scenario. Fear stayed in charge for a few more months: in February 2026, bitcoin touched $60,000. Being contrarian is not a strategy; having a plan for both scenarios is.

⚠️ TODOS HABLAN DE BEAR MARKET… ¿Pero y si pasa LO CONTRARIO?20:39

You can rebuild this cycle from my video titles, and the exercise shows how the story changes when the price does. The figures are verified market data, not forecasts.

• October 29, 2025. “HABLA POWELL… TODO LISTO PARA DESPEGAR” (Powell speaks: all set for liftoff), three weeks after the October 6 all-time high ($126,272 on Bitstamp), with bitcoin dominance possibly about to turn.
• November 2 and 5. “¿SE ACABÓ EL BULL MARKET?” (is the bull market over?) and “AL BORDE DEL BEAR MARKET” (on the edge of a bear market), with the price brushing $100,000.
• November 15. “TODOS HABLAN DE BEAR MARKET… ¿Pero y si pasa LO CONTRARIO?” (everyone is talking bear market, but what if the opposite happens?). The Fear & Greed Index read 10.
• November 26. “¿DEBES SALIRTE AHORA?” (should you get out now?), on whether a bounce toward $108,000 could be the last big chance to exit. On the 21st, bitcoin had touched about $80,500.
• December 14. “ESTE CIERRE SEMANAL DE BTC ES MUY PELIGROSO…” (this weekly BTC close is very dangerous), with price unable to reclaim its trendline.
• January 3, 2026. “Predicción Bitcoin 2026: ¿Bull Run Histórico o Crash Total?” (historic bull run or total crash?), with both scenarios on the table.
• February 8. “Bear Market 2026: ¿Cuándo es el MEJOR momento para invertir en Bitcoin?” (when is the best time to invest in Bitcoin?), two days after the price touched $60,000.
• April 22. “Aún es pronto ¡Que no te engañen!” (it's still early, don't be fooled), a warning against declaring victory too soon because of a rising wedge on the weekly chart.
• July. Back to basics with the halving video and an eye on the next cycle.
• October 7, 2026. “3 Motivos que Nadie te Cuenta para Invertir en Bitcoin en 2027” (three reasons nobody tells you to invest in Bitcoin in 2027): the focus has already moved to next year.

Look at the sequence: doubts about whether the high had already been the top, a debate between correction and trend change, the search for the best moment to buy in the middle of a crash and, at the end, an eye on the next cycle. Those are the phases told in real time, doubts included, which is how they actually feel.

¿SE ACABÓ EL BULL MARKET? ⚠️ Míralo ANTES de que sea demasiado tarde...15:59

In “Bear Market 2026” I ask the question that comes up most in a bear market, when will it end, and based on past cycles I put a deadline on it: October 2026. There is a basis for it, because in the three previous cycles the low came between 363 and 410 days after the peak; counting from October 6, 2025, that window runs from October 4 to November 20, 2026. If the July 1 low ends up being the bottom, it will have come after 268 days, earlier than in any previous cycle. As of October 17, 2026 we are inside the window and that low still hasn't been broken. A pattern that worked three times doesn't oblige the market to repeat it.

Bear Market 2026: ¿Cuándo es el MEJOR momento para invertir en Bitcoin?10:57

There is no consensus, and you should be wary of anyone selling it as a sure thing in either direction. These are the arguments that carry the most weight.

What suggests the pattern is still alive

• The timing has held four times. The 2025 high came 534 days after the halving, within the range of 2016 and 2020.
• The drop in new supply is real and programmed: after the next halving, issuance will fall to about 225 BTC a day.
• Psychology hasn't changed. Euphoria, fear and boredom keep taking turns, and plenty of people still get in late.

What suggests it no longer works the same way

• The halving matters less every time. The 2012 halving took 3,600 BTC a day out of a tiny market; the 2028 one will take 225 out of a market worth trillions. And the multiple from halving to peak has shrunk from ×95 to ×1.9.
• Institutions have arrived. The SEC approved spot bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024, and for the first time bitcoin beat its previous high before a halving: on March 14, 2024, it came close to $73,800. In 2016 and 2020 it had reached the halving well below its prior peak.
• Macro is in charge. The 2022 bear market coincided with the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, and the IMF documented that the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 went from 0.01 in 2017–2019 to 0.36 in 2020–2021. The October 10, 2025 crash was triggered by a tariff threat, not a halving.
• The sample is laughably small. Four halvings are four data points, and today's market looks nothing like the one in 2012.

One caveat on the ETFs: when approving them, the SEC chair stressed that the agency “did not approve or endorse bitcoin” and described it as “primarily a speculative, volatile asset.” Institutions change who is buying; they don't remove the risk. The most honest approach is to treat the cycle as one factor among many and prepare for several scenarios, not just one.

In “3 Motivos que Nadie te Cuenta para Invertir en Bitcoin en 2027”, from October 2026, I go through three arguments in its favor: the returns, the fact that the big players have only just arrived and its price measured in gold. Then I close with the risks and a price scenario for 2027. Watch it with this section in mind: these are arguments, not guarantees.

3 Motivos que Nadie te Cuenta para Invertir en Bitcoin en 20278:28

Knowing which phase you think the market is in helps you make better decisions, not nail the exact day. A few sensible ways to use it:

• Spread your purchases over time. If the cycle repeats, you'll buy a good chunk in the low zone; if it doesn't, you won't have bet everything on one date. The bitcoin DCA guide walks you through it step by step.
• Decide in advance when you'll sell. An exit plan written with a cool head is worth more than any indicator checked in the heat of the moment.
• Size your position with the drawdown table in mind, not the rally table. If a −77% drop would force you to sell, you're investing too much.
• Stay away from leverage when euphoria peaks. October 10, 2025 made it painfully clear what happens when the market turns with everyone leveraged.
• Learn to read the chart yourself. Start with the technical analysis guide and keep going with my bitcoin analysis videos.

On the second point, in “¿DEBES SALIRTE AHORA?” (should you get out now?, November 26, 2025) I ask that question in the heat of the moment: whether it made sense to take partial profits on a bounce toward $108,000 and which levels would invalidate that bounce. That's the idea: you decide the exit in stages and ahead of time, not once panic has arrived.

¿DEBES SALIRTE AHORA? El rebote a 108.000 podría ser decisivo | BTC.D | ETH | LINK | AAVE | ONDO26:52